Objective:Despite heterogeneous biology, similar surveillance schemas are utilized after resection of all pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs). Given concerns regarding excess radiation exposure and financial burden, our aim was to develop a prognostic score for disease recurrence to guide individually tailored surveillance strategies.Methods:All patients with primary nonfunctioning, nonmetastatic well/moderately differentiated PanNETs who underwent curative-intent resection at 9-institutions from 2000 to 2016 were included (n = 1006). A Recurrence Risk Score (RRS) was developed from a randomly selected derivation cohort comprised of 67% of patients and verified on the validation-cohort comprised of the remaining 33%.Results:On multivariable analysis, patients within the derivation cohort (n = 681) with symptomatic tumors (jaundice, pain, bleeding), tumors >2cm, Ki67 >3%, and lymph node (LN) (+) disease had increased recurrence. Each factor was assigned a score based on their weighted odds ratio that formed a RRS of 0 to 10: symptomatic = 1, tumor >2cm = 2, Ki67 3% to 20% = 1, Ki67 >20% = 6, LN (+) = 1. Patients were grouped into low-(RRS = 0-2; n = 247), intermediate-(RRS = 3-5; n = 204), or high (RRS = 6-10; n = 9)-risk groups. At 24 months, 33% of high RRS recurred, whereas only 2% of low and 14% of intermediate RRS recurred. This persisted in the validation cohort (n = 325).Conclusions:This international, novel, internally validated RRS accurately stratifies recurrence-free survival for patients with resected PanNETs. Given their unique recurrence patterns, surveillance intervals of 12, 6, and 3 months are proposed for low, intermediate, and high RRS patients, respectively, to minimize radiation exposure and optimize cost/resource utilization.

A Novel Validated Recurrence Risk Score to Guide a Pragmatic Surveillance Strategy after Resection of Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: An International Study of 1006 Patients

Partelli S.;Falconi M.;
2019-01-01

Abstract

Objective:Despite heterogeneous biology, similar surveillance schemas are utilized after resection of all pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs). Given concerns regarding excess radiation exposure and financial burden, our aim was to develop a prognostic score for disease recurrence to guide individually tailored surveillance strategies.Methods:All patients with primary nonfunctioning, nonmetastatic well/moderately differentiated PanNETs who underwent curative-intent resection at 9-institutions from 2000 to 2016 were included (n = 1006). A Recurrence Risk Score (RRS) was developed from a randomly selected derivation cohort comprised of 67% of patients and verified on the validation-cohort comprised of the remaining 33%.Results:On multivariable analysis, patients within the derivation cohort (n = 681) with symptomatic tumors (jaundice, pain, bleeding), tumors >2cm, Ki67 >3%, and lymph node (LN) (+) disease had increased recurrence. Each factor was assigned a score based on their weighted odds ratio that formed a RRS of 0 to 10: symptomatic = 1, tumor >2cm = 2, Ki67 3% to 20% = 1, Ki67 >20% = 6, LN (+) = 1. Patients were grouped into low-(RRS = 0-2; n = 247), intermediate-(RRS = 3-5; n = 204), or high (RRS = 6-10; n = 9)-risk groups. At 24 months, 33% of high RRS recurred, whereas only 2% of low and 14% of intermediate RRS recurred. This persisted in the validation cohort (n = 325).Conclusions:This international, novel, internally validated RRS accurately stratifies recurrence-free survival for patients with resected PanNETs. Given their unique recurrence patterns, surveillance intervals of 12, 6, and 3 months are proposed for low, intermediate, and high RRS patients, respectively, to minimize radiation exposure and optimize cost/resource utilization.
2019
cost savings
neuroendocrine
non-functional neuroendocrine tumor
pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor
surveillance
Adult
Aged
Cohort Studies
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Databases, Factual
Disease-Free Survival
Female
Humans
Internationality
Kaplan-Meier Estimate
Male
Middle Aged
Monitoring, Physiologic
Multivariate Analysis
Neoplasm Recurrence, Local
Neuroendocrine Tumors
Pancreatectomy
Pancreatic Neoplasms
Precision Medicine
Prognosis
Proportional Hazards Models
Retrospective Studies
Risk Assessment
Survival Analysis
Treatment Outcome
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11768/108868
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