Ovarian failure risk in post-pubertal patients with cancer: a prognostic model

Plain language summary Chemotherapy can reduce fertility in young women surviving cancer. The effects of chemotherapy on ovarian function range from no damage to several degrees of reduced fertility. In some cases, premature menopause can occur. This variability depends on many different individual and treatment-related factors. In this study, we analyzed the outcomes in terms of menses regularity and fertility of 348 oncological patients receiving counseling on fertility at our unit from August 2011 to January 2020. We developed a predictive model to estimate the risk of premature menopause of each patient, to be used at diagnosis and every time a new treatment must be started. This model includes a combination of patient's age, number of lines of chemotherapeutic treatment, and three chemotherapy schedules commonly used in young patients with cancer. It allows an improved counseling on fertility, and it can aid decision making regarding fertility preservation strategies for each patient.Aim: To develop a predictive model for ovarian failure (OF) after chemotherapy in young post-pubertal women with cancer. Methods: Retrospective, monocentric cohort study including 348 patients referring to the Oncofertility Unit of San Raffaele Hospital (Milan, Italy) from August 2011 to January 2020. A predictive model was constructed by multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results: Data about menstrual function resumption were available for 184 patients. The best predictive model for OF was identified by the combination of age; number of chemotherapy lines; vincristine, adriamycin, ifosphamide/adriamycin, ifosphamide; capecitabine; adriamycin, bleomycine, vinblastine, doxorubicin (area under the curve= 0.906, CI 95% 0.858-0.954, p = 0.0001). Conclusions: The model predicts the probability of loss of ovarian function at cancer diagnosis and with every change of treatment.