International external validation of a stratification tool to identify branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms at lowest risk of progression

Background Identifying branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) at lowest risk of progression may allow for a reduced intensity of surveillance. Objective We aimed to externally validate the previously developed Dutch-American Risk stratification Tool (DART-1; ), which identifies cysts at low risk of developing worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS). Methods Three prospective cohorts of individuals under surveillance for BD-IPMNs were combined, independent from the original development cohort. We assessed the performance (discrimination and calibration) of DART-1, a multivariable Cox-proportional logistic regression model with five predictors for the development of WFs or HRS. Results Of 832 individuals (mean age 77 years, SD 11.5) under surveillance for a median of 40 months (IQR 44), 163 (20%) developed WFs or HRS. DART-1's discriminative ability (C-statistic 0.68) was similar to that in the development cohort (0.64-0.72) and showed moderate calibration. DART-1 adequately estimated the risk for patients in the middle risk quintile, and slightly underestimated it in the lowest quintiles. Their range of predicted versus observed 3-year risk was 0%-0% versus 0%-3.7% for Q1; 0.3%-0.4% versus 3%-11% for Q2; and 2.6%-3% versus 2.4%-9.8% for Q3. The development of WFs or HRS was associated with pancreatic cancer (p < 0.001). Vice versa, in absence of WFs or HRS, the risk of malignancy was low (0.3%). Conclusions The performance of DART-1 to predict the development of WFs or HRS in BD-IPMN was validated in an external international cohort, with a discriminative ability equal as in the development cohort. Risk estimations were most accurate for patients with BD-IPMNs in the middle risk quintile and slightly underestimated in the lowest quintiles.