The effect of past experiences on affective reactions to outcome uncertainty

Drawing on the model of affective reactions to outcome uncertainty (Kruglanski et al., 2025), we carried out two studies concerning conditions under which people have positive or negative affective reactions to outcome uncertainty (i.e., uncertainty as to whether the situation will afford positive or negative outcomes). Study 1 (N = 431) demonstrated that one’s short-term history of positive or negative outcomes determines people’s affective reactions to a given situation only when that situation has an uncertain outcome. Study 2 (N = 461) confirmed that short-term history of positive or negative outcomes determined people’s affective reactions to situations with uncertain outcomes when that situation was presented immediately after the short-term outcome experience, but not when a long delay occurred between the two. By contrast, long-term history of positive or negative outcomes determined people’s affective reactions to an outcome uncertainty after a long delay. The discussion considered the implications of these findings in reference to approach-avoidance tendencies toward uncertain situations.